The second and last time the world experienced the ghastly effects of nuclear weapons was August 9, 1945 when the United States dropped a nuclear bomb on Nagasaki, Japan three days after Hiroshima. The second bomb to fall in war, a.k.a. “Fat Man”, immediately killed 60,000-80,000 people and unleashed the explosive force of 22,000 tons of TNT.[1] In the months and years that followed, tens of thousands more died due to the lingering effects of radiation. After Nagasaki and Hiroshima instances of cancer in the stomach, brain/central nervous system, colon, liver, and lung among others occurred with higher frequency. Nuclear radiation is also known to cause leukemia, cataracts, and cardiovascular and thyroid diseases.[2] Exposure to radiation changes the DNA of both plants and animals. Altered plant DNA has been known to cause tumors in humans who ingest it.[3] While studies differ on how and to what degree nuclear war would affect the economy one thing is consistent throughout, they all agree it will permanently change the international system.[4]
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If the above sounds like the stuff of ghost stories from the distant past you would be wrong. In December of 1998 the now deceased Osama Bin Laden declared it was the religious duty of Muslims to acquire nuclear weapons.[5] Earlier that same year Al ’Qaeda leadership issued a fatwa against all American civilian and military personnel. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, author of a congressional report to the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, describes the nuclear organization of Al ‘Qaeda as sophisticated and patient.[6] Al ‘Qaeda leadership is content to miss smaller opportunities to inflict damage on the U.S. and the west through chemical or biological weapons in order to achieve their end goal of a nuclear detonation. Thanks to persistent coalition bombing, intelligence about Al ‘Qaeda’s nuclear wing has dried up. But contrary to what the quiet might suggest, there is no evidence that Al ‘Qaeda’s nuclear ambitions have ended. It is most likely that they have hit pause due to continual disruptions.
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Nuclear terrorism is not the only risk of proliferation., Iirrational state actors are a problem too. Pakistan and India are an excellent example of this. The two nations have gone to war 4 times since 1947; each time moving a step closer to nuclear war. The Kargil Conflict in 1999 was the closest the world has come to nuclear war since Nagasaki. According to former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, Pakistan planned to drop nuclear weapons and backed down only after then President Bill Clinton met with Pakistani President Sharif.[7] The de-escalation and pull-back by President Sharif cost him his job via a military coup as well as years in exile, but saved the world from the horror of nuclear war.[8]
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Harvard Kennedy School professor Matthew Bunn says, “Unfortunately, it doesn’t take a Manhattan Project to make a nuclear bomb. More than 90 percent of the work in the Manhattan Project was actually about making the nuclear material. Once you have the nuclear material, making the actual bomb is not as difficult.”[9] Since 2010, 27 nations have eliminated all fissile material on their soil, leaving 31 countries still in possession of fissile material.[10] Nuclear security measures are not internationally regulated. They are considered a sovereignty issue and left up to individual states.[11] Large stockpiles of civilian fissile material can be found in Japan (10.8 tons plutonium, 1.2 highly enriched uranium). According to the National Police Agency, there are now dedicated police units at Japanese nuclear power plants 24/7 armed with armored vehicles and sub-machine guns.[12] Prior to this upgrade its facilities were staffed with guards who did not carry weapons, and had been caught on occasion by State Department officials asleep.[13] The most shocking aspect of their lack of security is that employees at nuclear facilities DO NOT have to submit to a background check.[14] Members of the Yakuza, a Japanese crime syndicate, have been found employed at these facilities.[15] That gives criminal actors not only ample opportunity to steal material, but direct legal access to facilities. Al ‘Qaeda is not the first nor the only terrorist organization to pursue nuclear weapons. Chechen terrorists as well as the Japanese terrorist group Aum Shinrikyo pursued nuclear weapons and ultimately failed.[16]
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While studies differ on how and to what degree nuclear war would affect the economy, one thing is consistent throughout, they all agree it will permanently change the international system.[17] A 2005 study by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory illustrates that at least 10 trillion dollars would be required to clean up after an average sized explosion over a densely populated city, such as New York City.[18] The social ramifications of an explosion would only serve to intensify both the health and economic consequences. The social “glue” which holds societies together tends to break down under high stress, high pressure situations. Imagine the scenes of rioting, looting, and general civil unrest that unfolded in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Now amplify that several fold and you can begin to imagine what a post-nuclear world will look like.
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These devastating effects, the current risk of proliferation and the lack of security means we are not doing enough to secure our future. Nuclear proliferation is a major issue. Rather than wait until a crisis such as 9/11 or the 1999 Kargil Conflict occurs, we would all be better served by discussing the issue now before a mistake becomes an international headline.
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Endnotes
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[1]"Atomic Bomb Dropped on Nagasaki." History.com. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/atomic-bomb-dropped-on-nagasaki.
[2]Douple, Evan B., Kiyohiko Mabuchi, Harry M. Cullings, Dale L. Preston, Kazunori Kodama, Yukiko Shimizu, Saeko Fujiwara, and Roy E. Shore. "Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness. 2011. Accessed November 26, 2016. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3907953/.
[3]"How Nuclear Bombs Affect the Environment." Education - Seattle PI. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://education.seattlepi.com/nuclear-bombs-affect-environment-6173.html.
[4]Institute of Medicine (US) Steering Committee for the Symposium on the Medical Implications of Nuclear War. "The Consequences of Nuclear War: An Economic and Social Perspective - The Medical Implications of Nuclear War - NCBI Bookshelf." National Center for Biotechnology Information. 1986. Accessed November 26, 2016. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219185/.
[5]PBS. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/binladen/who/edicts.html.
[6]"Report Says Al-Qaeda Still Aims to Use Weapons of Mass Destruction against U.S." Washington Post. 2010. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/25/AR2010012502598.html.
[7]The Independent. Accessed November 29, 2016. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistan-india-nuclear-bomb-kargil-war-former-cia-officer-sandy-berger-bruce-riedel-a6758501.html.
[8]Ibid.
[9]@harvard. "Our Nuclear Insecurity." Harvard Gazette. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/03/our-nuclear-insecurity/.
[10]Ibid.
[11]Ibid.
[12]Yamamoto, Jake AdelsteinMari. The Daily Beast. Accessed November 29, 2016. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/07/when-will-nuclear-terror-hit-japan.html.
[13]Ibid.
[14]Ibid.
[15]Ibid.
[16]Bunn, Matthew. “Securing the Bomb 2010.” April 2010. Accessed on November 26, 2016.
[17]Institute of Medicine (US) Steering Committee for the Symposium on the Medical Implications of Nuclear War. "The Consequences of Nuclear War: An Economic and Social Perspective - The Medical Implications of Nuclear War - NCBI Bookshelf." National Center for Biotechnology Information. 1986. Accessed November 26, 2016. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219185/.
[18]"Key Issues: Nuclear Weapons: Issues: Effects on Health & Environment: Economic Effects." Key Issues: Nuclear Weapons: Issues: Effects on Health & Environment: Economic Effects. Accessed November 26, 2016. http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/effects/economic.htm.